Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
